CORSIA optimism builds as market edges towards unlocking long-awaited demand ahead of 2027

## OzelCarbonOS — VCM Intelligence Brief **CORSIA Demand Signal Strengthens.** The most significant VCM development this cycle is growing optimism that CORSIA-eligible demand will finally materialise at scale. Airlines, project developers, and investors are pointing to improving liquidity, expanding eligible supply, and early signs of sustained carrier purchasing ahead of the critical 2027 compliance trigger ([Carbon Pulse](https://carbon-pulse.com/561441/)). If this momentum holds, it could meaningfully tighten supply of CORSIA-eligible credits — particularly high-integrity REDD+ and removal units vetted under IC-VCM Core Carbon Principles — and widen the spread between eligible and non-eligible vintages. Market participants should watch for registry issuance data from Verra and ART TREES that could confirm whether the supply pipeline is keeping pace. **Nature-Based Credits Face Demand Headwinds in Key Markets.** A new analysis shows that while a majority of Canadian firms plan to sustain or grow sustainability spending, nature and biodiversity investments are unlikely to be prioritised ([Carbon Pulse](https://carbon-pulse.com/561556/)). This is a cautionary signal for nature-based credit types — ARR, avoided conversion, and jurisdictional REDD+ — that depend on corporate buyers seeing co-benefits as a value driver. The finding contrasts with the political narrative heading into COP17 in Yerevan, where world leaders are calling for faster implementation of biodiversity targets and greater financing ([Carbon Pulse](https://carbon-pulse.com/561509/)). The gap between political rhetoric and actual corporate allocation remains a structural headwind for nature-credit pricing. **Climate Finance & Policy Crosscurrents.** At the IMF/World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok, climate finance remained a persistent discussion thread despite US pressure to de-emphasise it, with tax reform and energy security framing the debate ([Carbon Pulse](https://carbon-pulse.com/561507/)). In the EU compliance space, the Commission will update its ETS2 impact assessment as leaders tie the new road-transport and buildings ETS to energy affordability concerns ([Carbon Pulse](https://carbon-pulse.com/561307/)). Meanwhile, EU importers are already adjusting procurement strategies to source CBAM-covered goods from jurisdictions with lower country-level default emission values, a behavioural shift that could redirect trade flows and indirectly affect embedded-carbon credit demand ([Carbon Pulse](https://carbon-pulse.com/561477/)). **Compliance Market Snapshot.** EU carbon benchmarks slid late in Friday's session, with a wave of selling pushing prices down roughly €0.70 in 30 minutes, bringing the Dec contract within range of a technical support level that has held for much of 2026 ([Carbon Pulse](https://carbon-pulse.com/561295/)). In North America, CFTC positioning data shows regulated entities adding net length in CCA and RGA V26 futures, suggesting compliance buyers are locking in allowance costs ahead of upcoming obligation periods ([Carbon Pulse](https://carbon-pulse.com/561493/)). Italy also secured a preliminary EU agreement on energy-bill support that avoids direct ETS linkage, resolving months of regulatory uncertainty ([Carbon Pulse](https://carbon-pulse.com/561472/)).