India's CORSIA Entry Could Add 140 MtCO2 to Global Offsetting Demand Through 2035

## OzelCarbonOS — VCM Intelligence Brief **India emerges as a pivotal demand catalyst for the voluntary and compliance-adjacent carbon markets.** A new report estimates that India's participation in the ICAO CORSIA scheme could inject approximately 140 MtCO2 of offsetting demand between 2027 and 2035 — roughly 10% of total global CORSIA obligations — with most of the burden falling on foreign airlines operating Indian routes ([Carbon Pulse](https://carbon-pulse.com/566561/)). Separately, analysis of India's domestic Carbon Credit Trading Scheme (CCTS) highlights its potential to aggregate industrial-cluster-level renewable power procurement, linking carbon credit mechanisms directly to clean energy deployment in the country's manufacturing heartlands ([Carbon Pulse](https://carbon-pulse.com/566557/)). These developments position India as both a significant source of future credit demand and a proving ground for compliance-VCM convergence in the Global South. **On the methodology and registry front, Verra has published an updated Coal Plant Retirement methodology under the Verified Carbon Standard (VCS).** The revision addresses long-standing concerns around additionality and baseline-setting for coal phase-out projects, a credit type that has drawn both enthusiasm — as a pathway to energy transition finance — and scrutiny from integrity watchdogs ([Verra](https://verra.org/verra-releases-updated-coal-plant-retirement-methodology/)). Market participants should monitor how the IC-VCM's Core Carbon Principles assessment framework evaluates these updated rules, as CCP-labelled coal retirement credits could command a significant premium once approved. **The broader climate policy landscape is sending mixed signals.** UN analysis of the latest round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) from over 150 parties suggests global emissions could fall 6% below 2019 levels by 2035, but the trajectory still implies warming well above 2°C ([Carbon Pulse](https://carbon-pulse.com/565867/)). The ambition gap underscores persistent demand drivers for voluntary action and corporate net-zero commitments. Meanwhile, the COP31 co-presidencies of Türkiye and Australia have tabled an electrification target of "35% by 2035," which a new report says would require a quadrupling of the current deployment pace — reinforcing the scale of investment and credit demand needed ([Carbon Pulse](https://carbon-pulse.com/566368/)). **In adjacent compliance markets and CCS developments,** Colorado has drafted a carbon storage accounting protocol that would count underground CO2 sequestration toward facility emissions targets and potentially generate tradable credits ([Carbon Pulse](https://carbon-pulse.com/566443/)). A US oil major meanwhile expanded its CCS portfolio to approximately 11 MtCO2/year under contract while criticising the EU Methane Regulation's implementation timeline as unachievable ([Carbon Pulse](https://carbon-pulse.com/566466/)). CFTC positioning data show emitters building net longs in California Carbon Allowances (CCAs) even as managed money moves in the opposite direction, suggesting divergent views on near-term price direction in the compliance space ([Carbon Pulse](https://carbon-pulse.com/566379/)). **Biodiversity-climate linkages also remain in focus** following the conclusion of COP17 biodiversity talks, which produced agreements on tracking progress toward 2030 conservation goals but left deep divisions over the Cali Fund and Indigenous Peoples' rights unresolved ([Carbon Pulse](https://carbon-pulse.com/566437/), [Carbon Pulse](https://carbon-pulse.com/566380/)). For VCM stakeholders in nature-based solutions — particularly REDD+ and avoided conversion — the outcomes reinforce the importance of integrated biodiversity co-benefits as a credit differentiator, even as sovereign-level financing mechanisms remain uncertain.